SPW trusted 3E to develop the Wallonia Dynamic Map. To determine the historical, real-time and predicted electricity production, 3E combines different data sources:
· aggregated historical and near real-time data* with a frequency of 15 minutes for the electricity production from solar panels, the electricity production from onshore and offshore wind turbines and the total grid load: source Elia (Belgian transmission system operator) ;
· historical, near real-time data and predictions for solar radiation and wind speeds, and the electricity production derived from this by solar panels and wind turbines in Wallonia: source 3E Data Services ;
· resource forecasts (wind, solar irradiance, and temperature): source European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMFW) and Global Forecast System (GFS) ;
· the installed capacity of solar panels and onshore wind (on land) turbines in each Walloon municipality: source SPW ;
· the installed capacity of offshore wind turbines in the North Sea: source Elia ;
· number of inhabitants per municipality: source SPW ;
· electricity consumption of an average Flemish family = 3500 kWh / year or 9.6 kWh / day (CWaPE) ;
· CO2 factor of the conventional electricity sector, a Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plant on natural gas = 502.2 kg CO2/MWh (Awac).
The figures for real-time electricity production by solar panels and onshore wind turbines are based on data from Elia (the transmission system operator). As Elia does not monitor all installations, its estimates are an underestimate of actual production. To correct for this, Elia's solar and wind production is first adjusted to the full installed capacity per technology, using the capacities supplied by SPW Energie. This gives us the corrected amount of energy produced in real time throughout Wallonia. However, this does not yet give us the quantity produced by each municipality, since Elia provides aggregated data for the whole of Belgium. The breakdown of data by municipality is based on resource forecasts, the installed capacity of solar panels and onshore wind turbines by municipality, and 3E's own simulation models.
Historical photovoltaic electricity production data, which Elia offers at provincial level, can be used to calculate production at municipal level. To do this, we use historical data on solar radiation per municipality from 3E's Data Services.
Historical wind speed data are obtained from reanalysis data sets (ERA5). Historical energy production by onshore wind turbines, at the local authority level, is estimated on the basis of these wind speeds, the installed capacity per local authority and the power curve of an average wind turbine (this curve shows the relationship between wind speed and energy produced).
The real-time electricity production data for the offshore wind turbines comes from Elia. Since Elia has full control over the electricity generated by the offshore wind turbines, these data do not need to be readjusted.
In addition, real-time electricity load data (i.e. electricity consumption) is obtained from Elia and updated every hour. However, these load data relate to Belgium as a whole. To obtain an estimate of the load for Wallonia, a scaling factor of 0.27 is applied as suggested by Elia.
Finally, a check is made to detect any record of renewable energy production. Each month, the monthly energy production by area is also recorded.
* Near real-time means that the data shows the current situation or a few minutes less. These data are renewed every 15 minutes.
